July 19, 2008
FX Market Outlook
Dollar: Away From the Precipice Once Again
Euro: Anti Dollar Benefit Remains
Yen: Bear Market Rally?
Pound: 2.00 is Taken Out
Commdollars: Parity, Parity, Parity?
Top 5 Stories in FX This Week
China’s Economic Growth Cools to Slowest Since 2005
Dour Headlines From The Wall Street Journal
Does Inflation Mean More Unemployment?
How To Avoid The Mother of All Bailouts
Deconstructing May Investment Flows
—————–Trading Thoughts-Always Be Fading—————-
I had a deja vu experience this week when a thread on Elite Trader bulletin board appeared with the title of “always be fading”. The thread was actually started from an article I wrote more than 3 years ago for SFO magazine which continues to resonate with many retail traders who inevitably like to “stand apart” from the crowd and take the opposite side of price action.
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July 12, 2008
FX Market Outlook
Dollar: No Mercy For the Buck
Euro: Rallies As Oil Rises
Yen: Rangebound
Pound: 5% Stays in Place
Commdollars: Aussie Rules Caddie Drools
Top 5 Stories in FX This Week
The Markets Two Biggest Fears
No More Dollar Anchor
Was the Collapse of the Bear a Crime?
Five Themes for 2008 - Scorecard
Are Confindence Surveys Signaling a Market Rally?
—————–Trading Thoughts-Follow The Model—————-
“First, let me say thank you for helping me make a little more money today.” the email began. “I’d like to preface this email by saying that I am asking these questions so I can learn, not to second guess you.
My question for you is, what is it you were looking at to determine your exit? Just a couple of hours later the pair was 30 pips higher. Were you looking at indicators and oscillators? Are you looking at price action only? Again, I’m looking to learn.”
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July 5, 2008
FX Market Outlook
Dollar: Dollar Turn For Real?
Euro: Rally Cut Short
Yen: More Downside To Come
Pound: On The Brink of Recession?
Commdollars: Relative Strength
Top 5 Stories in FX This Week
US Jobs Continue to Contract
Bear Stearns Assets Decline
Is Goldman Sachs Relying on Risky Prop Trading to Keep up This Pristine Facade?
Fed Ponders Private Equity In Banks
Crunch Still On
—————–Trading Thoughts-The Curse of Two—————-
Trading at its core is a game of sentiment not numbers. That’s why all the data driven strategies that employ second level derivate calculus equations and a cadre of computer engineers to run them eventually blow up. Numbers are nice, but feelings move prices. And feelings can be very capricious. Numbers may be saying one thing, but feelings often follow another path. In the long run numbers always win out, but in the short run traders frequently run out of money battling market’s feelings. That why the old saying that markets are not logical, they are psychological rings so true.
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